Free Quarterly Report / RNG Intelligence
Q2 2026 / Published May 10, 2026
Free edition / Regional roll-up and headline drivers
RNG Intelligence Regional Quarterly
Q2 2026 added 28 sites to the federal RFS approved-pathway list and brought the U.S. tier-1 RNG candidate count to its highest level in twelve months. The free edition surfaces regional totals and the headline drivers; the full quarterly walks every tier-1 candidate by name with pipeline proximity, feedstock band, RFS pathway status, and full Water Hawk scoring.
Audience: RNG developers, project finance teams, and offtake counterparties evaluating LMOP, AgSTAR, and POTW digester opportunities.
Executive summary
U.S. tier-1 RNG candidates ended Q2 2026 at 327 sites, up from 298 at the close of Q1 and the highest count in twelve months. The increase is concentrated in the Midwest livestock digester pipeline (AgSTAR sites scoring up on improved pipeline-proximity infrastructure data) and in the Northeast POTW digester pipeline (where municipal water utilities are converting biogas streams to RNG inside larger LCRR-and-PFAS capital plans). EPA RFS approved-pathway additions ran at the highest pace since 2023 with 28 new pathways finalized during the quarter.
The capital-side story is somewhat less buoyant. Voluntary compliance markets softened in Q2, with several Northeast utilities reporting margin compression on offtake renegotiations. The federal RFS market remains the primary monetization path; the cellulosic biofuel D3 RIN traded in a $3.10 to $3.45 range during Q2, broadly consistent with Q1 but below the 2024 highs. Project pro-formas anchored against $3.50-plus D3 pricing should be stress-tested.
Headline stats
Tier-1 candidates
327
Q2 close
Added this quarter
plus 29
up 9.7%
New RFS pathways
28
Q2 finalized
D3 RIN range
$3.10-$3.45
Q2 spot
LMOP active
2,418
all bands
AgSTAR active
498
all bands
Regional roll-up: tier-1 candidates by region
| # | Region | Tier-1 candidates | Quarter change | Primary feedstock |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Midwest | 102 | plus 14 | Livestock digester (dairy plus swine), with secondary landfill gas |
| 2 | Southeast | 68 | plus 5 | Landfill gas with growing POTW digester pipeline |
| 3 | Northeast | 57 | plus 7 | POTW digester plus landfill gas; PFAS-driven WTP buildout pulling biogas conversion forward |
| 4 | Southwest | 42 | plus 1 | Landfill gas; livestock digester emerging in TX panhandle |
| 5 | West | 38 | plus 1 | Landfill gas; CA LCFS continues to drive economics |
| 6 | Mid-Atlantic | 20 | plus 1 | POTW digester concentrated, LCRR-driven capital programs adding capacity |
Tier-1 candidates are sites scoring 75 plus on the Water Hawk RNG composite, which combines pipeline proximity, feedstock band, EPA RFS pathway eligibility, state program posture, and three other components. Regional totals are operator-curated estimates derived from federal sources.
Spotlight / Three state programs leading Q2
California LCFS continues to drive Northeast-equivalent economics on West Coast projects via deficit-generator demand. Oregon Clean Fuels Program added two new fuel pathways during Q2. Pennsylvania PUC opened an RNG procurement docket that, if finalized as drafted, would establish the most-aggressive RNG procurement requirement east of the Mississippi. The full quarterly walks each state program through eligibility, current funding posture, and the candidate pipeline that benefits.
Federal RFS context for Q2
EPA finalized 28 new RFS approved pathways during Q2 2026, with the largest single category being livestock-digester sites adding to existing dairy or swine operations. Pathway approvals reduce the time-to-monetization risk on tier-1 candidates by between 4 and 9 months on average; the full quarterly carries the per-pathway approval list with the corresponding candidate match where one exists.
D3 RIN pricing held in a tight band during Q2 ($3.10 to $3.45 spot, with a Q2 average of $3.27) compared to the 2024 average of $3.86. Operators stress-testing project economics should anchor on $3.10 as a 25th-percentile case and $3.45 as a 75th-percentile case, not on the 2024 average. The full quarterly carries the cohort-aggregated capital-stack composition for tier-1 sites currently in development.
Subscribers continue
Subscribe to unlock RNG Intelligence
The RNG Intelligence addon attaches to either pillar tier and unlocks the per-candidate scoring, the state program rollup, the tier-1 alert layer, and the capital-stack analysis. Available standalone or bundled in the Water Nexus subscription.
Locked / Subscribers only
Tier-1 candidate detail (327 sites named)
Every tier-1 candidate by name, with pipeline proximity in miles, feedstock band, RFS pathway eligibility, EPA pathway status, state program coverage, and the full Water Hawk score breakdown. The free edition publishes regional totals only.
- Per-candidate composite score with full component breakdown
- Pipeline proximity to nearest interstate gas line in miles
- Feedstock characterization with sustainability-of-supply rating
- EPA RFS pathway status with approval-date and category
- State program eligibility cross-reference per candidate
Locked / Subscribers only
State program rollup with funding posture
All 50 states walked through the relevant RNG-supportive programs (LCFS, CFP, RFS, state RPS additions) with current funding posture, expected outlay through 2027, and the candidate pipeline that benefits.
- Per-state program eligibility, funding posture, and expected outlay
- CA LCFS deficit-and-credit balance with 12-month forward outlook
- OR CFP pathway approvals and forward-pipeline build
- PA RNG procurement docket status and projected timeline
Locked / Subscribers only
Tier-1 alert candidates: 30-day forward window
14 candidates currently scoring 70 to 74 on the composite, expected to cross into tier-1 within the next 30 days based on pending data updates. Subscribers receive real-time tier-1 alerts when a candidate crosses the threshold.
- Per-candidate path-to-tier-1 narrative with the gating component
- Expected timing of the threshold crossing
- Pre-tier-1 watch list with score-move trajectory
Locked / Subscribers only
Cohort-aggregated capital stack composition
Cross-candidate analysis of how tier-1 projects are financed. Senior debt mix, equity participation, federal credit utilization, and state-program participation. The free edition publishes regional totals only.
- Cohort senior-debt mix and DSCR distribution
- Equity participation profile
- Federal IRA Section 48 ITC utilization
- D3 RIN forward-monetization profile
Methodology and disclaimers
Tier-1 designation is derived from the Water Hawk RNG composite (pipeline proximity, feedstock band, RFS pathway eligibility, state program coverage, and four additional components) with a tier-1 threshold of 75 on the 0-100 scale. Inputs include EPA LMOP, EPA AgSTAR, HIFLD pipeline geometry, EPA RFS approved-pathway list, state program disclosures, and contributor-aggregated data subject to the cohort safeguards. D3 RIN pricing is sourced from public broker quotes with a 7-day rolling average. Forward-looking aggregates respect a 90-day delay so the publication never functions as a real-time pricing channel.
Free quarterly reports are opinion-based analysis of imperfect public data and aggregated contributor data subject to the safeguards described at Data Disclaimers. Not investment, legal, financial, or engineering advice. Aggregated outputs respect a minimum cohort size, single-contributor cap, and 90-day forward-looking delay so the publication never functions as a real-time price-signaling channel.